Anas Sarwar Set to Lead Scottish Labour Despite Polling Challenges
Scottish Labour is facing a significant decline in popularity following Sir Keir Starmer’s decision to cut the winter fuel payment, resulting in them losing almost one in ten of their voters, according to a recent poll.
Despite this setback, Anas Sarwar appears to be on track to become Scotland’s next First Minister, with his party projected to become the largest in Holyrood following the 2026 election. The Survation poll conducted for Progress Scotland, a thinktank established by Angus Robertson, also predicts Nigel Farage’s Reform UK to secure 10 seats in the Scottish Parliament, trailing behind the Scottish Greens and Liberal Democrats.
The survey indicates that 31% of Scots would vote for Labour in a general election, marking a nine-point decrease from the previous survey in May and a four-point drop from their election results. The SNP, on the other hand, remains steady at 31%, unchanged since May and up one point from their previous election outcome.
The Tories are currently polling at 14%, Reform at 13%, and the Lib Dems at 9%. In terms of the Holyrood constituency vote, both Labour and the SNP are tied at 31%, with Labour experiencing a 6% decrease and the Tories dropping by 5%. The Lib Dems stand at 8%, Reform at 9%, the Greens at 6%, and Alba, led by Alex Salmond, at 1%.
On the list vote, the SNP holds 28%, down two points, while Labour has 26%, down nine points. The Tories are down four to 14%, and the Lib Dems, Reform, and the Greens are all at 10%. Alba secures just 3% of the vote.
According to Ballot Box Scotland’s Allan Faulds, these results would see Labour returning as the largest party with 44 MSPs, followed by the SNP with 38, the Tories with 15, and the Greens and Lib Dems with 11 each. Reform would secure 10 seats in this scenario.
This poll represents a positive outcome for Anas Sarwar’s party, marking the first time a survey has shown them winning more seats than the SNP. Despite this, the only way John Swinney could prevent a Labour government would be to attempt to form a coalition with the Scottish Greens, a move likely to face opposition from unionist parties.
The declining polling numbers come in the wake of Labour’s decision to proceed with cuts to the winter fuel payment, shifting from a universal benefit for all pensioners to targeting only those receiving pension credit or specific benefits. This change, announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in July to address a £22 billion deficit in public finances, is expected to impact up to 10 million pensioners across the UK, with around 900,000 affected in Scotland.
Pete Wishart of the SNP criticized Keir Starmer’s Labour for pursuing austerity measures similar to those of the Tories, highlighting the negative impact on public services and household incomes. He emphasized the SNP’s commitment to prioritizing Scotland’s interests and called for the country’s right to determine its future as an independent nation.
Dame Jackie Baillie, Deputy Leader of Scottish Labour, acknowledged the desire for change among voters after 17 years of SNP governance. She outlined Labour’s focus on revitalizing the NHS, boosting the economy, and positioning Scotland as a leader in clean energy, presenting this as the transformative direction Scotland needs.
Challenges and Opportunities for Anas Sarwar’s Leadership
As Anas Sarwar prepares to potentially assume the role of Scotland’s First Minister, he faces both challenges and opportunities in steering the country forward. The decline in Scottish Labour’s popularity poses a significant hurdle, particularly in light of the party’s decision to support cuts to essential benefits like the winter fuel payment. This move has sparked criticism and raised concerns among voters, impacting the party’s standing in recent polls.
However, despite these challenges, Sarwar’s leadership presents an opportunity for Scottish Labour to redefine its priorities and engage with voters on key issues affecting the country. His focus on addressing healthcare, economic growth, and renewable energy aligns with the aspirations of many Scots, offering a platform for positive change and progress.
The Path to a Labour Government in Scotland
With the prospect of Scottish Labour emerging as the largest party in Holyrood, the path to forming a government presents both promise and complexity. The need to secure a majority and navigate potential coalition partnerships underscores the importance of strategic alliances and policy alignment.
Anas Sarwar’s leadership will be crucial in forging these relationships and driving a cohesive agenda that addresses the diverse needs of Scotland’s population. As the political landscape evolves and voter sentiments shift, the ability to adapt and respond effectively will be essential in shaping the future direction of governance in Scotland.
In conclusion, the road ahead for Anas Sarwar and Scottish Labour is paved with challenges and opportunities. By addressing the concerns of voters, prioritizing key issues, and fostering collaboration with other parties, Sarwar has the potential to lead Scotland towards a new era of progress and prosperity.